\
  The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
BackRefresh Options Favorite

Clinton +9 in PA

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinto...
''"'"""''''
  09/17/16
pretty surprising actually
c0ldplay fan
  09/17/16
bad news for trump but there is small hope though A c...
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
that will prob still only bump him 5-6 percent he still h...
c0ldplay fan
  09/17/16
Trumps' going to win without PA, I think. NH or CO (+IA, NC,...
SR
  09/17/16
He's not leading, or even close to ltied, in either of those...
''"'"""''''
  09/17/16
he is tied in NH latest NH poll shows clinton +1 not t...
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
Trump's led some CO polls in september: http://projects.five...
SR
  09/17/16
recent poll showed trump +2 in CO
donny
  09/17/16
NH most likely - clinton + 1 i think his only realistic p...
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
Pretty sure he still needs to win another state
''"'"""''''
  09/17/16
no that gives him exactly 270
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
Nh is his best chance because it's secretly almost as white ...
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
i think johnson will hurt Trump in NH by peeling away libert...
-.. --- -. .- .-.. -.. / - .-. ..- - .--.
  09/17/16
NJ poll had him down 4. He could pick it up. http://www.r...
RCP90
  09/17/16
if trump wins nj he will have won the election by at least 5...
404 poster not found
  09/17/16
I think people in New Jersey like to fuck with pollsters.
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
ljl. fantasy.
-.. --- -. .- .-.. -.. / - .-. ..- - .--.
  09/17/16
No way Trump wins PA. His path is the same as its always bee...
Proud Millenial
  09/17/16
u mean FL instead of CO?
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
Missed FL but he'd have to win CO too ljl
Proud Millenial
  09/17/16
He put FL too. No way trump is winning co or nv
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
Nevada is close, I don't think CO is in the cards though ...
c0ldplay fan
  09/17/16
? he's at least 50/50 to win nv in a close election
404 poster not found
  09/17/16
Why do you think that? Obama won twice.
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
the polling in nv has been pretty consistent and was a toss-...
404 poster not found
  09/17/16
The NBC Marist poll for 9/23-25/12 had Obama by 2. He won by...
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
how is that relevant? Hillary is not Obama and Trump is n...
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
That's true. Actually the same Latino decisions poll found t...
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
he needs to substitute NH for CO he is not winning CO or ...
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
GOP hasn't won Penn since 1988. It's a perpetual pipe dream....
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
yeah, i don't get why Trumptards rave about PA. it's the gre...
-.. --- -. .- .-.. -.. / - .-. ..- - .--.
  09/17/16
cr. I guess because they have managed to control the state g...
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
good analysis!
.,,,.,..,.,.,:,.::,,...,::,...,:,.,..:.,:.::,.
  10/12/17
Have you looked at NV polls lately? http://projects.fivethir...
SR
  09/17/16
There's only one poll showing trump ahead and its from a New...
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
all the other polls show him tied or close enough though ...
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
Demographics are terrible for trump in Nevada. He has no org...
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
lol so you will go with polls when it suits you and when ...
.,...,,..,,.,.,.,...
  09/17/16
See below. But hey, enjoy this week. This is as good as it g...
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
the link in the post you replied to shows more than 1 poll g...
SR
  09/17/16
Yeah but Latino decisions did a poll that shows Clinton beat...
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
Not sure how that is relevant. 538rates Monmouth highly
''"'"""''''
  09/17/16
Let's have the Des Moines register do all the polls then.
Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon
  09/17/16
...
''"'"""''''
  10/12/17


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:50 PM
Author: ''"'"""''''


http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

But PA is in play!!! LMAO TRUMP TARDS

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431723)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:51 PM
Author: c0ldplay fan

pretty surprising actually

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431732)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:51 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

bad news for trump

but there is small hope though

A critical challenge lies within his own party: 71 percent of Republicans say they're backing Trump, while 10 percent back Clinton and 19 percent are unsure. Among Democrats, 81 percent are for Clinton, 11 percent are for Trump and 9 percent are uncertain.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431736)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:53 PM
Author: c0ldplay fan

that will prob still only bump him 5-6 percent

he still has work to do between now and november

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431747)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:52 PM
Author: SR

Trumps' going to win without PA, I think. NH or CO (+IA, NC, OH, FL, NV, ME2)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431742)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:52 PM
Author: ''"'"""''''


He's not leading, or even close to ltied, in either of those two states

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431745)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:54 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

he is tied in NH

latest NH poll shows clinton +1

not to mention he is only down by 3 in VA

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431759)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:55 PM
Author: SR

Trump's led some CO polls in september: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/

Also, although there hasn't been a NH poll since 9/11, the most recent poll before that was Trump +1 according to 538's house effects adjustment: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431769)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:55 PM
Author: donny

recent poll showed trump +2 in CO

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431778)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:53 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

NH most likely - clinton + 1

i think his only realistic path is Romney + IA+FL+OH+NV+NH+Maine 2nd

CO/MI/WI/PA are all very low probability

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431750)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:54 PM
Author: ''"'"""''''


Pretty sure he still needs to win another state

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431757)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:54 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

no that gives him exactly 270

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431762)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:55 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

Nh is his best chance because it's secretly almost as white trash as Iowa. But I suspect that is one state where Gary Johnson will fuck trump.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431775)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:22 PM
Author: -.. --- -. .- .-.. -.. / - .-. ..- - .--.

i think johnson will hurt Trump in NH by peeling away libertarian types who normally vote GOP and help him in ME by peeling away working class whites who voted Obama, from Hillary.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431945)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:01 PM
Author: RCP90

NJ poll had him down 4. He could pick it up.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431806)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:03 PM
Author: 404 poster not found (ohnoes)

if trump wins nj he will have won the election by at least 5 points anyway

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431819)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:06 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

I think people in New Jersey like to fuck with pollsters.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431835)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:23 PM
Author: -.. --- -. .- .-.. -.. / - .-. ..- - .--.

ljl. fantasy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431955)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:54 PM
Author: Proud Millenial

No way Trump wins PA. His path is the same as its always been: sweep OH FL NC NH CO NV IA

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431761)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:54 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

u mean FL instead of CO?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431767)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:55 PM
Author: Proud Millenial

Missed FL but he'd have to win CO too ljl

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431777)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:56 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

He put FL too. No way trump is winning co or nv

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431780)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:57 PM
Author: c0ldplay fan

Nevada is close, I don't think CO is in the cards though

maybe if Johnson steals the weedmos from Clinton he might have a chance

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431783)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:57 PM
Author: 404 poster not found (ohnoes)

? he's at least 50/50 to win nv in a close election

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431785)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:05 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

Why do you think that? Obama won twice.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431830)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:09 PM
Author: 404 poster not found (ohnoes)

the polling in nv has been pretty consistent and was a toss-up even in mid august, which isn't good for clinton

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431851)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:20 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

The NBC Marist poll for 9/23-25/12 had Obama by 2. He won by 6.8.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431930)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:22 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

how is that relevant?

Hillary is not Obama and Trump is not Romney

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431941)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:26 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

That's true. Actually the same Latino decisions poll found that Nevada Hispanics (who are going heavier for Clinton) think 2026 is a more important election than 2012. So I'd expect Clinton to win by a greater percentage.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431972)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:58 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

he needs to substitute NH for CO

he is not winning CO or PA i think

NV is a toss up

his realistic path is flipping IA/FL/OH/NV/NH and winning maine 2nd

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431790)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:04 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

GOP hasn't won Penn since 1988. It's a perpetual pipe dream. Sure, 1/3 of the state is basically north Kentucky but the rest of the state is New York.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431825)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:23 PM
Author: -.. --- -. .- .-.. -.. / - .-. ..- - .--.

yeah, i don't get why Trumptards rave about PA. it's the great moby dick for the GOP; every 4 years they think they will win it but fall short. central and western PA is increasingly GOP but philly and its burbs are increasingly dem, and that's the main population center. cows and trees can't vote.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431953)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:32 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

cr. I guess because they have managed to control the state government, but its a quirky state that way.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31432008)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 12th, 2017 12:38 PM
Author: .,,,.,..,.,.,:,.::,,...,::,...,:,.,..:.,:.::,.


good analysis!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#34425385)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 8:58 PM
Author: SR

Have you looked at NV polls lately? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/#plus

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431794)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:02 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

There's only one poll showing trump ahead and its from a New Jersey pollster who has never polled Nevada before. If the Las Vegas press starts talking about trump winning I'll take it seriously.

I see the appeal though because then with Maine 2 you can just make it happen.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ll4OP

I think trump is probably going to lose North Carolina too though. NC libs are maf over the gay shit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431816)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:05 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

all the other polls show him tied or close enough though

its not out of question that he wins NV

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431833)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:11 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

Demographics are terrible for trump in Nevada. He has no organization. Harry Reid's son ran Hillary Clinton's campaign in Nevada. Obama outperformed the RCP average by 3.5% in 2012. I would pick trump to win Michigan or Wisconsin before Nevada.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431859)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:15 PM
Author: .,...,,..,,.,.,.,...

lol

so you will go with polls when it suits you and when its not you will add some bullshit level one analysis like demographics, harry reids son hehe?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431887)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:19 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

See below. But hey, enjoy this week. This is as good as it gets.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431920)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:06 PM
Author: SR

the link in the post you replied to shows more than 1 poll giving Trump Nevada and several polls that, with 538's house effects adjustment, suggest Trump is ahead. Nate Silver's model says Trump would win Nevada if the election were held today.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431837)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:17 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

Yeah but Latino decisions did a poll that shows Clinton beating trump 70-14 with Hispanics in Nevada and the Hispanic percentage of the vote is projected to go up to 20%. 78% of Hispanics in Nevada disapprove of trump.

Anything is possible but id be surprised if Trump wins any close state with a substantial Hispanic population. Florida may be the exception.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431910)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:15 PM
Author: ''"'"""''''


Not sure how that is relevant. 538rates Monmouth highly

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431889)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 17th, 2016 9:18 PM
Author: Donald Trump proudly presenting his signed pardon

Let's have the Des Moines register do all the polls then.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#31431912)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 12th, 2017 12:34 PM
Author: ''"'"""''''




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3355010&forum_id=2#34425355)